Probabilistic Approaches to Uncertainty in Pre-Modern History: A Workshop
Sponsored by University of St. Andrews
Thursday, July 6, 2017 to Friday, July 7, 2017

University of St. Andrews
United Kingdom

"This workshop is intended to promote and refine the use of probability as a tool for representing uncertainty about historical periods from which little data survives. It will be a hands-on affair devoted to the practicalities of applying a probabilistic analysis to particular historical problems. We will discuss the theory underpinning probabilistic analysis, share our experience in designing and implementing probabilistic models, and discuss some of the conceptual and practical challenges they raise.

The event is open to researchers engaged in parametric modelling (by which we mean the estimation of  unknown quantities on the basis of estimates for other, better-understood parameters, such as Keith Hopkins' famous model of Roman GDP) who are interested in trialling a probabilistic approach to problems they are working on.  Participation will not require any prior experience with probabilistic approaches, but some facility with numbers and a basic familiarity with MS Excel (or more advanced computational software such as R) are essential."

If interested in participating, please contact by December 2nd.

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